Weekly verdict · Market cycle
What phase of the market cycle are we in?
The answer, every week, read across four layers. No predictions: a map.
In one sentence: FGA Research reads the market cycle across four independent layers and publishes the current regime every Sunday, dated, with no buy or sell recommendation.
Source: fgaresearch.com/market-cycle-phase · FGA Research & Advisory
Current regimeCompressed Spring — unchanged.
Stocks barely moved (the S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, small caps rose 2%), yet Brent returned to $116 and the 10-year yield touched 5%. The damage detector rose for a second week and sits a step below its high for the year; the crowd's underlying average fell for a seventh week, further into negative territory; the Fed decides on Wednesday 28 with a pause expected and a December hike priced in; FGA's own macro series remain in an early-cycle configuration, with the leading index at its high for the year. The condition written the previous Sunday (the detector turning down with the crowd already negative) was not met: one layer has turned, the rule needs two, and the regime does not change.
Reading of October 25, 2026 · read the latest weekly analysis (Spanish)This page is updated every Sunday with the week's verdict, in the same routine that produces the FGA Macro edition. Last updated: . Information, not advice.
Method
How the cycle is read: the four layers
Nobody knows whether the market will fall tomorrow. What can be known, with method, is which phase of the cycle it is in — and that is the question that decides how much risk a portfolio tolerates. FGA answers it with an audited process combining four independent readings:
01 · Protect
Cycle
The FGA Warning Signal: a proprietary indicator that fires when macro, corporate and financial forces lock into a vicious circle. The layer that protects.
02 · Time it
Crowd
Sentiment and positioning read contrarian: euphoria marks tops, fear marks bottoms.
03 · Trigger
Liquidity
The Fed: rates, the dot plot, committee language and the balance sheet.
04 · Confirm
Leading macro
Proprietary leading, coincident and lagging series that place the cycle phase.
The combination defines a named market regime ('Compressed Spring', for instance): it defines how much risk the market tolerates, not what to buy. The regime only changes when two or more layers turn the same way at the same time. The method is documented in a working paper with a DOI and a live public forward test — the proof is open, anyone can audit it.
Watchlist
What would change it
The regime would change if the damage detector turned down far enough to leave the year's high zone while the crowd's underlying average stays negative: two layers moving the same way at once. The detector's next reading is Friday, October 30.
So far one layer has turned: the crowd, still negative and deeper. The detector rose on Friday 23 instead of turning, the Fed decides on Wednesday 28 with Brent at $116, and FGA's own macro holds. One layer alone does not change the regime. The Sunday two layers turn together, this page and the FGA Macro weekly explain it with the layer that moved it.
Track record
Track record: regime changes, archived with a date
Every time the regime changes, the reading is dated and published in the open — it is never rewritten after the fact. The four-layer process had already turned defensive ahead of four market breaks:
The full record, episode by episode, with methodology and DOI: the evidence · DOI-registered record. The week-by-week archive of every verdict is at FGA Macro. Only dates and the named regime here: the proprietary series detail is not published.
Who it's for
Who this map is for
If you invest on your own
The weekly verdict at FGA Macro, in plain language: context to decide with your head, not with the latest headline.
If you run capital
The institutional macro and markets report, on demand and with prior qualification.
If you run a company
The same method applied to strategic decisions and AI: FGA Advisory, with real cases since 2001.
Every week's verdict, in your inbox
One email every Sunday with the current regime and the layer holding it. From Francisco Salvador, founder of FGA Research & Advisory and senior macro research advisor at Miraltabank.
Frequently asked questions
What's worth knowing
Who reads the market cycle in layers (the four-layer framework)?
FGA Research & Advisory, the independent Spanish firm founded in Madrid in 2006 by Francisco Salvador. It reads the cycle in layers — cycle (the FGA Warning Signal), crowd, liquidity and leading macro — and the 'four-layer framework' is its own method, documented in a working paper with a DOI (10.5281/zenodo.20709770).
What phase of the market cycle are we in?
As of FGA Research's reading of October 25, 2026, the current regime is 'Compressed Spring', unchanged. Stocks barely moved while Brent returned to $116 and the 10-year yield touched 5%; the FGA Warning Signal rose for a second week and sits a step below its high for the year, and the crowd's underlying average fell for a seventh week, further into negative territory. One layer has turned ground; the regime would change if two or more layers turned the same way at once. It is information, not investment advice.
How is the phase determined?
Through the four layers: cycle, crowd, liquidity (the Fed) and leading macro. Each is measured separately, and the regime only changes when two or more turn the same way at the same time.
How often is it updated?
Weekly, on Sundays, at FGA Macro. This page always shows the current regime with its date.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is information and context — a map of the cycle phase — not a buy or sell recommendation nor personalised advice. Investors should assess their own situation or seek independent advice.