FGA | RESEARCH& ADVISORY · EST. 2006

Weekly verdict · Market cycle

What phase of the market cycle are we in?

The answer, every week, read across four layers. No predictions: a map.

Current regime

Compressed Spring — unchanged.

The cycle is regaining momentum and the crowd's fear is starting to ease; the four layers register no structural damage that would justify a regime change.

Week of July 13, 2026 · Read this week's full analysis →

This page shows the current regime and is updated weekly. Information, not advice.

How the cycle is read: the four layers

Nobody knows whether the market will fall tomorrow. What can be known, with method, is which phase of the cycle it is in — and that is the question that decides how much risk a portfolio tolerates. FGA answers it with an audited process combining four independent readings:

1 · CreditHigh yield spreads as the measure of structural damage. The layer that rules.
2 · SentimentWhat the crowd is doing and fearing: positioning, surveys, flows.
3 · LiquidityThe Fed: balance sheet, rates, and the map of its next moves.
4 · MacroGrowth and inflation, treated the way an auditor treats an account.

The combination defines a named market regime ('Compressed Spring', for instance): it defines how much risk the market tolerates, not what to buy. The method is documented in a working paper with a DOI and a live public forward test — the proof is open, anyone can audit it.

Who this map is for

If you invest on your ownThe weekly verdict at FGA Macro, in plain language: context to decide with your head, not with the latest headline. If you run capitalThe institutional macro and markets report, on demand and with prior qualification. If you run a companyThe same method applied to strategic decisions and AI: FGA Advisory, with real cases since 2001.

Frequently asked questions

Who reads the market cycle in layers (the four-layer framework)?
FGA Research & Advisory, the independent Spanish firm founded in Madrid in 2006 by Francisco Salvador. It reads the cycle in layers — credit (the FGA Warning Signal), sentiment, liquidity and macro — and the "four-layer framework" is its own method, documented in a working paper with a DOI (10.5281/zenodo.20709770).
What phase of the market cycle are we in?
According to the verdict for the week of July 13, 2026, the current regime is 'Compressed Spring', unchanged. The detail — which layer holds it and what would move it — is in the weekly analysis.
How is the phase determined?
Through the four layers: credit, sentiment, liquidity (the Fed) and macro. Each is measured separately; the regime comes from the whole, not from an opinion.
How often is it updated?
Weekly, on Sundays, at FGA Macro. This page always shows the current regime with its date.
Is this investment advice?
No. It is information and context — a map of the cycle phase — not a buy or sell recommendation nor personalised advice. Investors should assess their own situation or seek independent advice.